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Table 3 Combinations selected by BMA methods and their estimated performance

From: Development of biomarker combinations for postoperative acute kidney injury via Bayesian model selection in a multicenter cohort study

  Maximum posterior model probability combination Median probability combination
AUC (95% CI)
 Sustained mild AKI 0.80 (0.78, 0.87) 0.81 (0.78, 0.87)
 Severe AKI 0.81 (0.76, 0.90) 0.83 (0.76, 0.90)
Posterior model probability 0.20 0.20
Odds ratios (95% CI)a
 Log plasma IL-6b   1.58 (1.12, 2.26)
 Log plasma NT-proBNP 1.60 (1.28, 2.02) 1.58 (1.26, 1.99)
 Log plasma h-FABP 2.00 (1.33, 3.02) 1.85 (1.22, 2.82)
 Change in serum Crc 1.80 (1.55, 2.11) 1.79 (1.54, 2.10)
Posterior variable probability
 Log plasma IL-6b   0.57
 Log plasma NT-proBNP 1.00 1.00
 Log plasma h-FABP 0.76 0.76
 Change in serum Cr 1.00 1.00
  1. Abbreviations: BMA Bayesian model averaging, AUC area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, CI confidence interval, AKI acute kidney injury, IL-6 interleukin-6, NT-proBNP N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, h-FABP heart-type fatty acid binding protein, Cr creatinine
  2. aThe odds ratios and corresponding 95% CIs are based on logistic regression with sustained mild AKI as the outcome
  3. bThe results for plasma IL-6 are given only for the median probability combination as plasma IL-6 was not included in the maximum posterior model probability combination
  4. cper 0.1 mg/dL